Small screens, tiny batteries, a general air of nerdiness and no
particular reason to exist: it's never been easy selling smartwatches
and it's not going to get any easier anytime soon.
Samsung was first off the blocks this time around with the release of
the Galaxy Gear, and has apparently shipped 800,000 of the smartwatch
(although it's unclear how many it has sold). But despite plenty of
rumours that they're working on rival timepieces, few of the other big
players (Google, Apple, or Microsoft in particular) seem especially keen
to join the smartwatch race, leaving it to startups,
Kickstarter-powered projects and fitness bands to make most of the
running.
The real problem with smartwatches is the lack of discernible
interest from consumers, outside of niche (mostly sports) users. Of
course, if you ask people what they want, it's well known they'll only
ever demand a faster horse, so it's always how to gauge how consumer
interest in nascent products and technologies will develop.
This Google Trends graph
sums up that consumer apathy problem neatly. At the moment, the only
people interested in wearable tech are the staff of the tech companies
that are making it.
It's worth noting that I tried to create a similar Google Trends
chart for the terms 'iPhone' and 'iWatch' but such is the difference in
the scale of interest it just didn't work — and it's perhaps relevant
that the iWatch rumours have dried up in recent months.
The same problems (and more) face other wearable devices such as
Google Glass-style smartglasses: unless you wear glasses already, you
probably won't want such headsets at all. And if you do wear glasses,
you probably won't want to wear something so bulky and dorky — or, if
you did, your friends, family and colleagues probably wouldn't be keen
on having you hanging around looking like a bipedal security camera.
Some have tried to make a case for smartglasses in the workplace,
but the real-life applications remain distinctly limited; and, for most
use cases (taking or watching videos, for example), a smartphone can
already do those jobs very well.
Vendors are keen on wearable smart devices because they're worried about saturation in the smartphone market
and low margins in the tablet world (and decline in PC sales). But can
wearables really provide an alternative revenue stream worth having?
The current or next crop of wearable gadgets are mainly viewed as
companion devices. That means either an additional cost for consumers —
meaning they won't fly in developing markets or with price-senstive
buyers elsewhere — or they'll end up being bundled with other devices
such as smartphones or tablets for free. As a result, they'll only ever
offer incremental revenue on top of smartphones, rather than being the
brand new revenue stream that investors are craving.
It's tempting to see the smartwatch (and wearable tech in general) as
falling into the same category as the paperless office and the cashless
society: something that's always going to be just another five years
away. But it's more likely that the smartwatch is running through the
same cycle as the tablet did a decade ago: pretty much every tech
company saw the opportunity but nobody could make it work until Apple
built the iPad. Simillarly, all of the usual suspects have been building smartwatches for years without getting the package right.
Smartwatches and wearables could be running round that circuit for another five years
yet before one company puts all the right elements together to create a
must-have device. As with so much hardware in this market, much depends
on what Apple decides to do.
But the biggest reason smartwatches will find the going tough in the
short tem at least is that there's actually plenty of innovation still
left in the smartphone.
Smartphone designs were much more excitingly polymorphous before the
cold black slab of glass become the default imposed by the state of the
art touchscreen model — think of all the amazing Nokia designs of
yesteryear. Advances such as curved screens could rescue the smartphone
from it's black mirror design doldrums.
Similarly, smartphone payments, imaging, and better battery life are
areas with a lot of development work ahead. As such, the curved and
flexible screens just entering the mainstream will be a much bigger deal
for consumers than another wearable gadget they just don't understand.
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